Here's a hand I'd love some opinions on. I've been at this table for 20 minutes-- some reads but nothing solid.
I've just doubled up to 85,000 in the $3R on FTP. 648 started, there are 52 players left and I'm 17th in chips. UTG makes it 4,800 to go with blinds at 1,200-2,400. I raise to 14,000 from MP with K-K. The button moves all in for 35,000. UTG calls, I call 21,000 more.
The flop is 5d 9c Jd. UTG checks, I check. Turn 2d. UTG bets 2,400 into a 112,000 pot. I call. River 7h. UTG puts me all in for 48,000.
Who's folding, who's calling and why? What hands do you put these players on?
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8 comments:
Ok, so you fear UTG has AA. Well, if you think he's got them the move is to fold since calling hoping for the miracle set would be like calling with any other pair. But if he ain't got them, you have a great chance to go chip leader with any of these two moves:
1. Call like you did, and then push the flop if no ace comes. (Scared poker IMO, if he wants to see a flop with AKs I would make him pay the full price preflop)
2. Push preflop. My preference.
Having called though, I think that checking the flop is a big mistake in the hand, since you basically don't know where you stand any more. You can't be bothered by AA since you called preflop, and with no ace on the flop you are realistically only scared by JJ (can't see someone calling 2 reraises with 99). You must bet there IMO.
I'll wait for your answer!
Hands like these make me realize I"m still not a great player yet. I can't figure out if that turn bet is a bet to keep you in or something to see where he's at. My guess is it's to keep you in. I'm guessing he has a flush. I can't imagine what he called that huge push with...maybe AK diamonds? I think the button may have a high pair, so you just have to hope it's not JJ or AA. Let's hope he has QQ. Or maybe the button has A,K as well. Please don't tell me he pushed with A,Q or something like a mid pair. The other guy just calling tells me it's probably A,K sooted.
I fold, unfortunately, but I tend to make too many "great" laydowns.
The min-raise preflop would immediately triggered an alarm bell for me. After the button pushes and UTG calls, then the second alarm bell would go ding. But can I lay down KK here? Probabably not 'cuz I'm not Phil Helmuth and incapable of making Great Laydowns.
UTG just called the all-in - he didn't reraise all-in, the ingrate. He's just taunting, saying "c'mon in, if you dare."
Ok. So you call. Mmmmm, not sure that was wise. I think this woulda been the time to fold or re-re-re-raise all-in.
Howsomever, the flop is raggedy with a diamond draw and one overcard. That crafty devil UTG merely checks. Here again, the move may have been to press it. I'm askeerd of flush draws so I tend to play my big hands fast when faced with a draw. But, the response is a check.
Ok. Third diamond comes on the turn. UTG gives you nearly 5 to 1 by putting in a puny $2400. Did you have a read on this guy? Was he solid or a loosey goosey donkey luckbox?
Solid scenario: He has AKd and is just toying with you now and is inwardly jumping for joy because you called.
Loosey Goosey Donkey scenario: He thinks that bet's gonna get you off the hand. But it doesn't, you call.
The River, the nasty river rolls by with a card that gives someone a straight if they were silly enough to get in this mess with 8-6. Suited, of course. UTG now puts you on a decision for all your chips.
From the cool, objective comfort of my office chair, I'd say you are the one folding here. I'd put him on AA, AKs. Then, of course, there's the button - what does he move in with here pre-flop? A big ace or a pair, more than likely. And that pair could be jacks.
So, given the way the hand was played, I'm folding my kings here and preserving my 48,000 to live and fight another day.
i agree w/ some of the things already said. i probably would have pushed pre-flop w/ KK, and once he checks flop i'm likely pushing. if he's on a flush draw i'm going to make him pay to draw.
i also would have called the turn bet once flush came, since it was small bet, but i think i'm folding river there.
i was in same tournament, and had your table open for a bit after i noticed you were in it - loved your convo w/ spreadhead and the others...
I agree with some of the other comments. I would have pushed on the ragged flop to push out UTG.
I think he likely has the flush and was pulling you along with that small turn bet. His push seems kind of weird, since if he really did have the flush, you'd think we would be less - but nevertheless, I wouldn't want to risk my tourney when there is a completed flush & straight out there.
The only way I'd really call is if your 48,000 chips leaves you crippled - then I'd take the chance that he may be bluffing, or may have AJ. But if you have enough chips left to still play/make the money....I'd live to fight over another pot.
Without knowing the UTG player's style, the min raise could be hiding a monster or could be geared to send that message, inducing several nervous calls, in which case he was probably sitting on suited AK, AQ or KQ (or even suited connectors). I would have made a stronger re-raise pre-flop, probably to about $28K, and even going all-in here isn't a mistake; if he re-raises you after such a large re-raise, he's probably holding AA, QQ or JJ and you're both crossing your fingers. Since the button went all-in and UTG just called, I don't believe he was holding the pocket pair (my thinking is that he would have tried to isolate the button with a re-raise all-in). The check on the flop and min bet on the turn with three diamonds indicate to me that he's sitting on AKd or AQd. I don't consider the re-raise a mistake, but you definitely hurt yourself by checking on the flop. I would have pushed all-in there, hoping that he's holding QQ and not AA or at least guaranteeing a coin flip if he's holding a big drawing hand. I think calling off almost half your stack pre-flop made you, i hate to say it, pot committed. The button was probably holding a smaller pocket pair than yours.
So, what happened? I'm praying your opponents were both donkeys and that you ended up as the chip leader.
I call. I think you're ahead of the AJ sooted that is betting into you, and that the original all-in had some lesser pocket pair. There might be a set out there, but I think the call is good here. If you're good, you're in very good shape to make a run at the final table.
But I suck at tournaments, and this is why.
I agree with a lot of the above... I push all in either pre and/or on the flop. But I'd have to fold here. Your remaining stack is still over 25 blinds, and the play just screams that he's got you beat.
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