tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14010211.post114582368972731463..comments2024-01-08T06:12:13.666-08:00Comments on Pot Committed: The Ladies in the Hunt, Part Ichange100http://www.blogger.com/profile/18345734448270997870noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14010211.post-1146163350815491582006-04-27T11:42:00.000-07:002006-04-27T11:42:00.000-07:00Correction to my last post -- the 21% odds is more...Correction to my last post -- the 21% odds is more like 4 to 1, not 5 to 1. Still, I think this was close enough on the pot odds front for you to be folding since you felt *sure* that your opponent had the made flush.Hammer Player a.k.a Hoyazohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17031535857121915911noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14010211.post-1146062607272654332006-04-26T07:43:00.000-07:002006-04-26T07:43:00.000-07:00Ok Change I've thought about this hand for a coupl...Ok Change I've thought about this hand for a couple of days, and I don't like your call on the turn, especially since you say you <B>knew</B> she had the flush once she had raised your turn bet. Maybe I'm missing something but I don't think your math is exactly right.<BR/><BR/>You had 55 and the board read QT53, and after her raise you had to call 1700 more to win a pot of 7700. So I agree, the pot was laying you 4.5-to-1 odds on calling the bet.<BR/><BR/>But you said your odds to win with 1 card to come were just under 3-to-1, so you made the call. I don't get that part. There was 1 more five that you would win with, in addition to any of the three other Queens, Tens or Threes. That's a total of 10 outs, and with one card to come, that translates to roughly 21% odds, or more like 5 to 1 (and in any event slightly worse than the 4.5-to-1 odds beind laid by the pot).<BR/><BR/>So I'm not understanding where the 3 to 1 odds you speak of came from. And, if we assume that your true odds with 1 card to come were around the same 4.5-to-1 as the pot was laying you, I still wouldn't make that call because (1) you say you were "sure" she had the flush, which I agree with given the way you described the hand play, and (2) this is not a cash game where you can just reach back into your pocket for more cashish if you get busted on this call. In a tournament, this is basically a bet for your tournament life, and given that, I would not have made this call against someone I knew to be ahead of me and where I have just one card left to suck on them.<BR/><BR/>What am I missing about the situation that gives you 3-to-1 odds of winning the hand? Quads or a boat, what else can you make to beat the made flush you knew was there?<BR/><BR/>Anyways great post as always, looking forward to part two.Hammer Player a.k.a Hoyazohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17031535857121915911noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14010211.post-1145911675475819722006-04-24T13:47:00.000-07:002006-04-24T13:47:00.000-07:00Oops. Missed that there was a heart on the flop. ...Oops. Missed that there was a heart on the flop. Thought it was all diamonds.StBhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01363699522256218332noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14010211.post-1145906078488237552006-04-24T12:14:00.000-07:002006-04-24T12:14:00.000-07:00First of all, I don't mind the action pre-flop. I...First of all, I don't mind the action pre-flop. I like to try and flop a set, and get someone to get jiggy, which is what happened. You made a good bet on the flop, allowing somone to make a bad decision, which they did. The problem was they hit their card. I probably check/fold once the third diamond hits on the turn. If the passive player bets out, I'm pretty sure I'm beat, and can let it go. Weak maybe, but it means I don't have to make tough decisions for more chips than I want to.<BR/><BR/>And a cliff hanger ending?! Aaiyah!Garthmeister J.https://www.blogger.com/profile/15230084234500449929noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14010211.post-1145893976427856692006-04-24T08:52:00.000-07:002006-04-24T08:52:00.000-07:00Let me start by saying I'm no poker math whiz. Ha...Let me start by saying I'm no poker math whiz. Having said that, my guess is that your turn bet was the problem here, pretty much commiting you to the pot (how ironic). The other part you have to add to your math, I assume, is the % of time you were ahead on the turn (where she had TPTK, straight draw, or two-pair). I think you've not included that, which just add fuel to your reasoning to call. But I'll let the more sound math folks tell us more.CChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10777389833765857820noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14010211.post-1145893724278012192006-04-24T08:48:00.000-07:002006-04-24T08:48:00.000-07:00Tough spot. With the limpers acting before you en...Tough spot. With the limpers acting before you enter preflop, I would have popped it with pocket fives to take it down right there. You can eliminate those playing their suited cards with a pot size raise. <BR/><BR/>After flop, I like representing the flush. But when the 4th diamond hits, I fold. I don't like trying to get lucky with one card. I will save my chips for when I can enter the pot with the best hand. Just my conservative way to play that hand.StBhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01363699522256218332noreply@blogger.com